The access control industry is changing fast—like, really fast. Gone are the days of clunky key cards and isolated systems that barely talk to each other. As we look ahead to 2025, some major shifts are happening that will completely transform how businesses think about security and access.

Industry expert Lee Odess, CEO of Access Control Executive Brief, recently shared his predictions for where things are headed. We've taken a deep dive into his analysis to break down what these changes mean for you and your business. Let's get into it!

1. Capital Markets Are Taking Notice (And That's a Big Deal)

If there's one thing that signals an industry is about to boom, it's when investors start paying serious attention. And guess what? That's exactly what's happening in access control right now.

Why the sudden interest? For starters, public safety concerns are unfortunately on the rise. Recent security incidents in cities like New Orleans, Las Vegas, and Amsterdam have put safety back in the spotlight. But there's also something else happening: our industry is in the middle of a massive transformation from hardware-focused to software-driven solutions.

This shift isn't just attractive to investors—it's creating real resilience. While other sectors might crumble during economic uncertainty, access control continues to show strength. After all, security isn't exactly something businesses can skimp on, even when budgets get tight.

2. Consolidation Is Coming (But Not Just How You Think)

Industry consolidation—we've all seen it coming. But here's where things get interesting: it's not just about big fish eating little fish to cut costs.

The access control market is incredibly fragmented right now, with most brands having little recognition outside industry insiders. This creates the perfect storm for strategic consolidation that goes beyond traditional mergers and acquisitions.

Some companies are even positioning themselves for public offerings. While current economic conditions might delay some IPO plans, the strategic positioning through smart consolidation is happening regardless. Companies that can build recognizable brands while expanding their capabilities will emerge as the new industry leaders.

3. Platforms Are Evolving (And Isolated Systems Are So Yesterday)

Remember when having a standalone access control system was actually a good thing? Those days are officially over. As Odess perfectly puts it, "features are now bugs" when it comes to isolated systems.

The future belongs to platforms that play well with others. We're talking API-first approaches and seamless integration capabilities that connect your access control with everything from your HR systems to visitor management.

This isn't just a tech upgrade—it's a complete business model transformation. The challenge? Integrating with legacy systems that weren't designed for this new interconnected world. Companies that can bridge this gap will have a serious advantage.

4. The SMB Market Is the New Battleground

While enterprise clients have traditionally gotten all the attention, the small and medium-sized business market is quickly becoming the industry's most exciting opportunity.

There are a few reasons for this shift. First, the enterprise segment is getting pretty saturated. But more importantly, we're seeing enterprise-grade solutions "trickle down" and become both accessible and relevant to smaller businesses.

The real challenge here is channel conflict. As the industry moves from traditional dealer networks toward more digital-first engagement models, we're seeing some growing pains. The companies that can navigate this transition smoothly will be positioned to capture this massive market.

5. B2B Influencer Marketing Is Taking Center Stage

When's the last time you made a major purchase without checking out some reviews or recommendations first? Exactly. The same thing is happening in B2B security decisions.

The access control industry is shifting from traditional marketing approaches to thought leadership and influence-based strategies. What's surprising is how few manufacturers have built meaningful online communities around their products and services.

This gap creates a huge opportunity for companies willing to invest in authentic engagement and community building. It's not just about pushing products anymore—it's about being a trusted voice in the conversation about security and access.

What This Means for Your Business

These trends point to one undeniable fact: the access control industry is in the midst of a fundamental transformation. Here's what you should be thinking about:

Integration capabilities should be at the top of your priority list when evaluating new systems
Cloud-based solutions will continue to replace on-premises options, offering more flexibility and scalability
User experience is becoming as important as security features
Subscription models are replacing one-time purchases, changing how you budget for security

The pace of change might vary, but the direction is clear. The access control solutions that succeed will be those that combine robust security with the connectivity, flexibility, and user experience that modern businesses demand.

Is your access control strategy ready for what's coming? If you're looking to stay ahead of these trends and implement solutions that will stand the test of time, we'd love to chat. Get in touch with our team today to learn how Nexkey is building the future of access control.

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